Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Panthers vs. Steelers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.4% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 6.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (170.0) to WRs this year.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
- D.J. Moore has compiled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
