Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Chargers vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 100.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 100.5 (-135) after it opened @ 98.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 42.9% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 23.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has earned 85.0% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Derrick Henry has been among the top RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.69 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 91st percentile.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding 5.61 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Derrick Henry has run for many fewer yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (105.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
104
Rushing Yards
104
Rushing Yards
