Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 245.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for many more yards per game (257.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).

Cons

The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, conceding 7.25 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards