Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Tyreek Hill has posted significantly more receiving yards per game (101.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).

Cons

The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
99
Receiving Yards