WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.
- Tyreek Hill has posted significantly more receiving yards per game (101.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
99
Receiving Yards
99
Receiving Yards
