Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 70.6% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 10.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has put up significantly more receiving yards per game (97.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).

Cons

The Bills are a big 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, allowing 7.83 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards