Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 15.0 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has generated 64.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (88th percentile).
The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.23 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this week (62.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (76.9% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards