Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cardinals vs. Patriots
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects James Conner to accrue 15.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
- James Conner has generated 55.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (78th percentile).
- The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 36.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- James Conner has been much more involved in his team’s offense this season, playing on 64.7% of snaps compared to just 53.9% last season.
- The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
- The New England Patriots defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding just 4.21 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
