Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (+104/-128).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-128) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 9.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 28.0% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has put up quite a few more air yards this year (103.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in the league (71.5%) to wideouts this year (71.5%).

Cons

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
DK Metcalf has been among the weakest WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 20th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.61 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards