Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-130) after it opened @ 190.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a huge 17.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 69.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Cons

The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Davis Mills’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.1% to 61.4%.
Davis Mills has been among the worst per-play quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.32 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 12th percentile.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the least yards in the league (just 203.0 per game) versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards