Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-131) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to accrue 17.4 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Dameon Pierce has earned 82.5% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has generated 71.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (93rd percentile).
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Cons

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a huge 17.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 30.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards