WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cowboys vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-131) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to accrue 17.4 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has earned 82.5% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has generated 71.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (93rd percentile).
- The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a huge 17.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 30.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
