Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Rams vs. Raiders
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-135/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 248.5 (+110) after it opened @ 254.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Derek Carr has attempted 36.4 passes per game this year, ranking in the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (72.0%).
- The Los Angeles Rams safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Derek Carr has passed for quite a few less yards per game (243.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
- Derek Carr’s passing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.9% to 62.0%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
