Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Rams vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-120/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (-105) after it opened @ 91.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to notch 10.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
- Davante Adams has posted significantly more air yards this season (124.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
- Davante Adams’s 78.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 100th percentile for wide receivers.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in the NFL (72.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (72.2%).
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Davante Adams’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 75.8% to 62.8%.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards
92
Receiving Yards
