Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Van Jefferson from EV Insight

Van JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Van Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-127) after it opened @ 37.5 (-114).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be starting backup quarterback John Wolford in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The Rams rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.9% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
Van Jefferson has totaled far fewer air yards this season (61.0 per game) than he did last season (74.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Van Jefferson’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 54.9% to 47.5%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards