World Cup Betting Breakdown (Tuesday 12/6)

Our last Round of 16 matchups feature Group F winner Morocco taking on Group E runner-up Spain, and Group H winner Portugal clashing with Group G runner-up Switzerland. These matchups will round out what is looking to be an excellent Quarterfinal round.

The Portuguese were expected to win their group and handled it with relative ease, while the Swiss were just a goal away from winning a group against tournament favorites Brazil. Let’s get right into Tuesday’s matchups.

Morocco vs. Spain

After almost four decades of attempts, Morocco has finally made it to the knockout stage of the World Cup after topping Group F in rather dominant fashion, finishing undefeated and only allowing one goal over 270 minutes. Wins over Belgium and Canada saw them beat out the 2018 runners-up Croatia and set up a match against their 2018 groupmates Spain. Morocco has been suffocating defensively, but this Spanish side will be the most offensively talented bunch they have seen at this tournament. These two drew 2-2 in that 2018 match, with Spain equalizing in added time to snatch away a famous victory for Morocco. Morocco will need another big performance from forward Youssef En-Nesyri, who’s looking to become the first Moroccan to score three times in a World Cup.

The 2010 champions have yet to make it past the Round of 16 since winning it all in South Africa, getting grouped in 2014 and losing to the hosts Russia on PKs back in 2018. They’ll be looking to take their revenge after those two disappointing campaigns with the current youth movement hoping to lead the way. Spain looked dominant in their opening match with Costa Rica, trouncing them 7-0, followed up with a draw to Germany and their shocking loss to Japan. The latter in particular was concerning, as Spain had been dominating possession and still couldn’t finish their chances against a weaker Japan team. They will have to be better to have a chance against this very disciplined Morocco side. Fortunately for Spain, star Moroccan right back Achraf Hakimi is nursing an injury, which could absolutely open up space for Spain’s talented young wingers like Ferran Torres. It’s definitely something to keep an eye out for in this matchup.

Most Likely Scores

(all risking 0.2x, all odds provided by DraftKings)

Spain 0-0 Morocco (+1000)
Spain 1-0 Morocco (+475)
Spain 1-1 Morocco (+675)
Spain 2-0 Morocco (+550)

Portugal vs. Switzerland

Portugal had an excellent showing in the group until the last gasp vs. South Korea that saw them surrender an added-time winner that pushed the Koreans to the Knockout Stage. But their two wins over Ghana and Uruguay will be the focus in the locker room as they try to replicate that success against an underrated Switzerland team. Portugal has more talent on paper, and they haven’t advanced past the Round of 16 since 2006 when they reached the semifinals. Cristiano Ronaldo was only 21 years old then, and you can be sure he’s well aware he hasn’t been back to that stage yet. It’s now or never for the aging superstar as he looks to add one last trophy to his ever-expanding list of accomplishments.

Switzerland enters this match also with an impressive resume in the group stage, having beaten Serbia and Cameroon while keeping tournament favorites Brazil out of the net for the first 80 minutes of the match before eventually falling 1-0. Switzerland could have even won the group had they put one more past Serbia, but the Swiss will take the win and the matchup with Euro-rivals Portugal. The Swiss won their only recent competitive match with the Selecao back in June with a 1-0 win in UEFA Nations League, but all parties are well aware of the stakes at hand here. The Swiss have made the Round of 16 in three consecutive World Cups but have fallen in this round in all three. It’s going to take another special performance to take down Ronaldo and the Portuguese, and I’m expecting a slow, grind-it-out type game where quality chances are at an absolute premium.