Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Khris Middleton o16.5 points
(+110, DraftKings)
Khris Middleton played 26 minutes in his first game back and got the night off in their last game due to conditioning but is probable for this one. I expect the Bucks to continue to work Middleton up in minutes, meaning 26-28 feels like a pretty safe range of minutes. He scored 17 points in a short time last game and now gets a nice matchup against the Magic who rank 27th in DEF this season.
Dillon Brooks o23.5 points
(-110, BetMGM)
This is a big number for Dillon Brooks, but with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson and Desmond Bane all out, it is a pretty safe bet to assume Brooks will lead the team in shots tonight. Brooks loves to shoot as it is, and now he should have free reign to do so all night. It is a tough matchup, but the volume should be so significant here. My model has Brooks for nearly 28 points.
Jabari Smith o5.5 rebounds
(-140, BetRivers)
Jabari Smith has gone through a rebounding slump lately, which explains the decreased line since Smith is averaging seven rebounds per game this season. My model has him for 7.57 rebounds.
