Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-114) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to total 14.3 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack this year (61.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (78.8%).
Najee Harris has run for significantly fewer yards per game (51.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Najee Harris’s ground effectiveness (3.59 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (10th percentile among RBs).

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards