Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins from EV Insight

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-123/-111).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-123) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will be rolling out backup QB Kyle Allen in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Nico Collins has compiled significantly more receiving yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 53.7 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards