NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bengals vs. Chiefs
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-133) after it opened @ 62.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to notch 13.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (63.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (39.7% in games he has played).
- Isiah Pacheco’s running effectiveness (4.97 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile among RBs).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 32.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 8th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 4.27 yards-per-carry.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
