Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-135) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 82.4% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to notch 4.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet’s ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 71.5%.
Cole Kmet’s pass-game efficiency has gotten better this season, notching 7.94 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.94 figure last season.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards