Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Raiders vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.43 seconds per play.
- Austin Ekeler has been given 58.4% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 32.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
- Austin Ekeler has run for substantially fewer yards per game (51.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
