Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Latavius MurrayRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Ravens vs. Broncos
Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to garner 15.4 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a much bigger part of his team’s running game this week (67.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.8% in games he has played).
- Latavius Murray has run for many more yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).
Cons
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Broncos are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 82 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
