Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-110) after it opened @ 192.5 (-116).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 6th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens have incorporated play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Cons

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.36 seconds per snap.
Lamar Jackson has thrown for a lot fewer yards per game (209.0) this year than he did last year (238.0).
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 205.0 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
213
Passing Yards