Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Ravens vs. Broncos
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-110) after it opened @ 192.5 (-116).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 6th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Baltimore Ravens have incorporated play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.36 seconds per snap.
- Lamar Jackson has thrown for a lot fewer yards per game (209.0) this year than he did last year (238.0).
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 205.0 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
213
Passing Yards
213
Passing Yards
