Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mark Andrews from EV Insight

Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).

Pros

Mark Andrews has run fewer routes this season (94.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.1%).
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to notch 8.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Mark Andrews has totaled a monstrous 92.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among TEs.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.36 seconds per snap.
Mark Andrews has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (64.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
Mark Andrews’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.1% to 67.0%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards