Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Falcons vs. Steelers
Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-104) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has garnered 42.9% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has run for significantly more yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
- Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing efficiency has been refined this season, notching 5.25 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.96 rate last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
- The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
