Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Falcons vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+100/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (+100) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 7.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth has been much more involved in his team’s passing attack this season (20.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (12.8%).
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (60.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Pat Freiermuth’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 69.2%.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
