Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Falcons vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to garner 7.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (176.0) vs. WRs this year.
- The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Diontae Johnson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
- Diontae Johnson’s 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 67.0.
- Diontae Johnson has posted significantly fewer receiving yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (73.0).
- Diontae Johnson’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.6% to 62.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
