Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to garner 7.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (176.0) vs. WRs this year.
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
Diontae Johnson’s 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 67.0.
Diontae Johnson has posted significantly fewer receiving yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (73.0).
Diontae Johnson’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.6% to 62.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards