Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Vikings vs. Jets
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 253.5 (-110) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Kirk Cousins has been among the best passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 258.0 yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 217.0 per game) against the New York Jets defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the New York Jets defense this year (66.9%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 6.91 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
291
Passing Yards
291
Passing Yards
