Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jakobi Meyers from EV Insight

Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards

Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-139) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jakobi Meyers has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an impressive 66.0 yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (169.0) to wideouts this year.

Cons

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Jakobi Meyers has posted far fewer air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.35 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards