Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 19.1 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much more involved in his team’s run game this week (71.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.1% in games he has played).
Rhamondre Stevenson has run for a lot more yards per game (60.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 24th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Cons

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-least run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 37.6% run rate.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards