Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 4.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (72.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (84.0%).
Dawson Knox has accumulated a lot fewer receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
Dawson Knox’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a mere 7.91 yards-per-target compared to a 9.39 figure last year.
The New England Patriots defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) vs. TEs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards