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Chris Meaney
Demarcus RobinsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Demarcus Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-120) after it opened @ 37.5 (-110).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- Demarcus Robinson has been a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this season (14.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (5.9%).
- Demarcus Robinson has accrued significantly more air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Demarcus Robinson has put up many more receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (17.0).
Cons
- The Ravens are a huge 13-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
