WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Commanders vs. Falcons
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-130) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accumulate 4.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
- Logan Thomas has put up a colossal 31.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential target this season (63.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (82.5%).
- Logan Thomas’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 62.8%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
