WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Packers
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- A.J. Brown has run fewer routes this year (89.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (77.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to earn 8.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- A.J. Brown has accumulated a lot more receiving yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- A.J. Brown has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (97.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
