Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Onta Foreman from EV Insight

D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards

Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to accumulate 18.1 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.22 seconds per snap.
D’Onta Foreman has run for a lot fewer yards per game (44.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards