WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Jerick McKinnonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 10.5 (-110) after it opened @ 9.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Jerick McKinnon has been a more important option in his offense’s run game this season (19.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (4.5%).
- Jerick McKinnon has run for substantially more yards per game (16.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.82 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 33.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
14
Rushing Yards
14
Rushing Yards
