Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Kenyan Drake from EV Insight

Kenyan DrakeRushing Yards

Right now, Kenyan Drake’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-127/-108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-127) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to notch 15.4 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-most yards in the league (143 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
Kenyan Drake has been among the bottom running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.64 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.
The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards