Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jack Stoll from EV Insight

Jack StollReceiving Yards

Right now, Jack Stoll’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 13.5 (-137) after it opened @ 13.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jack Stoll to be much more involved in his offense’s passing offense this week (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.9% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (79%) to TEs this year (79.0%).

Cons

The Eagles are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Jack Stoll has been among the weakest pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a measly 9.0 yards per game while checking in at the 12th percentile among tight ends.
Jack Stoll has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among tight ends, completing just 54.7% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 17th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards