Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jalen Hurts from EV Insight

Jalen HurtsPassing Yards

Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 237.5 (-125) after it opened @ 238.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Jalen Hurts has thrown for many more yards per game (233.0) this year than he did last year (194.0).
Jalen Hurts’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 60.3% to 67.5%.

Cons

The Eagles are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 9th-least yards in football (just 213.0 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 7.42 yards-per-target: the 10th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards