Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-139) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Evan Engram has totaled substantially more receiving yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).

Cons

The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards