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Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight background

Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

NFL

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November 9, 2022

Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

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FTN Staff

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 10

Panthers vs. Falcons

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

O/U 57.5
-105/-125

O/U 55.5
-110/-110

O/U 57.5
-115/-119

O/U 60.5
-105/-125

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling with backup QB PJ Walker this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 8.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
D.J. Moore’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, compiling 5.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.04 figure last season.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game.
D.J. Moore has been a more important option in his team’s offense this season, staying in the game for 97.3% of snaps vs just 87.1% last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards

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