WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling with backup QB Sam Ehlinger in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- Michael Pittman has put up significantly more receiving yards per game (78.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Michael Pittman has notched quite a few less air yards this season (65.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.6%) vs. WRs this year (62.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
