Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 87.5 (-115) after it opened @ 86.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 48.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to garner 24.1 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- Derrick Henry has garnered 85.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
- Derrick Henry has picked up 106.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (100th percentile).
Cons
- The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
- Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 93 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
- The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards
105
Rushing Yards
