Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Buccaneers vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-139) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accrue 7.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Higbee has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass attack this year (21.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.5%).
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Tyler Higbee’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 63.9%.
- Tyler Higbee’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, notching a measly 5.68 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 figure last season.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 42.0) to tight ends this year.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
