Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.7% run rate.
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
- D’Andre Swift has run for a lot more yards per game (56.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
- D’Andre Swift’s running effectiveness has improved this season, accumulating 6.94 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.75 rate last season.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (144 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
Cons
- The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Andre Swift to be much less involved in his team’s run game this week (17.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.0% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Rushing Yards
19
Rushing Yards
