Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Greg Dulcich from EV Insight

Greg DulcichReceiving Yards

Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-115) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup quarterback Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.79 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the league.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards