Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-120) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 72.9% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Conklin has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 34.0 yards per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards