Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-129) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
- Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which ranks in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 53.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, catching just 58.9% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile among wide receivers
- Garrett Wilson has been among the worst WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
