Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 4.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet’s talent in picking up extra yardage have been refined this season, compiling 9.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.97 rate last season.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards