Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bears
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-137) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to garner 14.7 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
- The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 7th-worst DT corps in the league this year with their run defense.
Cons
- The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
- David Montgomery has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
