Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Bengals vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accumulate 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts has accrued a colossal 68.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts’s 57.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 49.9.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.39 seconds per play.
- Kyle Pitts has accumulated many fewer receiving yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).
- Kyle Pitts’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 50.6%.
- Kyle Pitts’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 6.79 yards-per-target vs a 8.66 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
